Inflation-Adjusted Annuities

26 Jan

This article was posted on April 1, 2002.

In the past year or so insurance companies have expanded their offerings to include true inflation-indexed life annuities tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is in contrast to life annuities with fixed cost of living adjustments (COLAs) which have been offered for years by vendors like GE Capital Assurance .

One vendor of inflation-adjusted life annuities (Lincoln National Life Insurance Company) even offers online quotes. These are the values used in the analysis below.

Comparing the initial payout from an inflation-adjusted annuity to inflation-adjusted withdrawals from a simple portfolio consisting of an S&P500 index fund and TIPS or cash yielded some interesting results. The annuity greatly increased withdrawals for older retirees, but did very little for younger folks.

Comparison of CPI-Indexed Life Annuity to Inflation-Adjusted Portfolio Withdrawals
Pay Out
(Note 1)
Single Life
(Pub 590)


Portfolio 100% Safe Withdrawal Rate
(Note 2)
at Annuity
Pay Out
(Note 3)
Portfolio Median Terminal Value at Annuity Pay Out
45 4.39% 37.7 77% 23% Cash 4.08% $6,222 92% $5,195
45 4.39% 37.7 50% 50% 4.18% $4,337 99% $3,715
55 5.20% 28.6 34% 66% 4.56% $1,680 84% $968
65 6.61% 20.0 25% 75% 5.70% $709 68% $298
75 9.34% 12.5 20% 80% 7.58% $413 43% $69
(Note 1) CPI-Indexed Life Annuity Pay Out is from Lincoln Life, see link Values are based on a life-only annuity for a male resident of Texas.

(Note 2) Portfolio “100% safe” withdrawals are for a pay out period equal to the IRS Single Life Expectancy, inflation indexed to the CPI, 0.18% annual investment expense ratio, TIPS coupon = 3.30%. The S&P500/TIPS allocation was varied to find the mix that provided the highest “100% safe” withdrawal rate for that pay out period. Longer pay out periods required a larger S&P500 allocation. The online portfolio withdrawal calculator at was used for this analysis.

(Note 3) Portfolio survivability at Annuity Pay Out Rate is less than 100% in all cases. The Median Terminal Values are also lower with these higher withdrawal rates.

For a 45-year-old, an inflation-adjusted annuity increased the “safe” withdrawal only 0.31% (4.39% vs. 4.08%) over a stock/cash portfolio invested at the efficient frontier (i.e. 77% S$P500/23% cash). For this slight increase in current income, the annuity purchaser forgos the very real chance of increasing withdrawals well beyond inflation in subsequent years with a stock/cash portfolio. (See the Pay Out Period Reset Method.)The chart below shows the expected terminal values of the portfolio after 10, 20, and 30 years. At the end of 38 years, the median terminal value was $5,195 for an initial $1,000 portfolio. The portfolio exceed $589 in 90% of the 38-year pay out periods examined.

The 50% S&P500/50% TIPS results are included for discussion purposes only. It’s likely that substituting TIPS for cash would improved the safe withrawal rate, but there’s no way to gaurantee that since the longest maturity TIPS available matures in April 2032. Because the current real yield on TIPS is historically very high, it’s likely the coupon rate will be less when they mature in 30 years or less and you need to reinvest the principal.

[Retire Early]For a 65-year-old, an annuity is more attractive. The safe withdrawal rate jumps almost a full percentage point (from 5.70% to 6.61%). Taking a 6.61% withdrawal from a stock/TIPS portfolio has only a 68% chance of surviving 20 years. A retiree taking a withdrawal that large would be broke in less than 20 years in one-third of the 20-year pay out periods examined.

[Retire Early] 


For younger retirees, annuities tend to “lock-in” close to the worst case results that could be expected from holding an investment portfolio in retirement. Certainly retirees age 45 and younger will find little of benefit in an annuity.

For older retirees who need to maximize their inflation-adjusted annual pay outs and have no desire to leave money to their children or a charitable organization after their death, an annuity may be attractive.


[check mark] Top 10 reasons to Retire Early.
Folks have all kinds of reasons to retire early. Is yours on the list?
<div class="question"></div> Retire Early’s Kareer Korner.
Experts agree. Working in most big companies (and many smaller companies) basically blows. Links for the beleaguered.
[check mark] How do I Retire Early?
(1) Manage expenses, (2) accumulate capital, (3) invest wisely by minimizing fees and commissions.
[check mark] Fees, commissions, and financial advisors.
How much should you be paying in fees ? How should you choose a financial advisor ?
[check mark] Retire Early’s IRA Toolkit.
A collection of research and spreadsheets for managing your IRA. Includes the popular JavaScript IRA Withdrawal Calculator.
[check mark] Millennium Edition — The Generation-X Retirement Planner
This spreadsheet allows you to calculate how much money you’ll need to Retire Early. (Assumes no Social Security or company pension benefits.)
[check mark] Health Insurance and Early Retirement
Health insurance is a big obstacle to early retirement for many people. Here are a few resources to help you navigate the swamp.
[check mark] Early Retirement Plan Failures.
Studying some of the mistakes people make can sharpen your own retirement plan. Passion Saving author Rob Bennett is the poster boy for bad retirement planning.
[check mark] Social Security and Early Retirement.
How will retiring early reduce my Social Security benefit? Probably not as much as you think.
[check mark] Resume of John P. Greaney, P.E.
Several readers have asked what I did before Retire Early. Here’s the details.
[check mark] Safe Withdrawal Rates in Retirement.
How long will my money last? A collection of research and calculators designed to help you answer that questiion.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: